Evaluating climate models for African regions
What this page covers
A literature synthesis — per AR6 reference region — of how CMIP6 models perform over African climates. The page does not prescribe a specific ensemble; that’s the Atlas approach page’s job. Here we summarise what the regional evaluation literature says so the Atlas’s specific choices land in context.
The framing — no single best model
To be written. Samuel et al. 2025 headline finding: “no single model consistently outperforms others across all subregions.” Per-region selection is the literature consensus, with caveats.
AR6 reference regions for Africa
To be written. Map + table. WAF / SAH / CAF / NEAF / SEAF / WSAF / ESAF / MDG.
Western Africa (WAF)
To be written. Sources: Faye & Akinsanola 2022 (CMIP6 extreme precipitation over West Africa); Makinde et al. 2026 (West African Westerly Jet); Diallo et al. multiple. Known biases: Sahel cold bias; Guinea coast wet bias. ACCESS family known to under-perform.
Sahara (SAH)
To be written. Limited literature. Mostly transition zone with WAF.
Central Africa (CAF)
To be written. Less-studied region. Refer back to Samuel 2025 continental picture.
North-Eastern Africa / Horn (NEAF)
To be written. Park et al. 2023; Endris et al. 2019. Cross-reference East African Paradox prominently.
South-Eastern Africa (SEAF)
To be written. Park et al. 2023 (extends into this region); Ayugi et al. 2021 (East African precipitation extremes).
Western Southern Africa (WSAF)
To be written. Pinto et al. 2018 (Int. J. Climatol.); Lim Kam Sian et al. 2021 (Atmosphere). ACCESS family well-suited due to SH subtropical tuning.
Eastern Southern Africa (ESAF)
To be written. Same composition as WSAF but with Indian Ocean influence noted.
Madagascar and small islands (MDG)
To be written. Resolution caveat — coarse CMIP6 grid can’t resolve island climate.
How this maps to the Atlas’s choices
To be written. Cross-link to Atlas approach. The Atlas’s regional sub-ensembles (AFR-WAF, AFR-CAF, etc.) are direct applications of this evidence base.
What the regional centres say
To be written. Pull from grey_lit_inventory.md — ICPAC, CSAG, SADC-CSC, AGRHYMET perspectives. This is where partner contributions are most welcome.